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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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