🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform User Earned $Nearly Half a Million from Bets on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was publicly declared, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the event. Changing Odds in Predictions Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that the Venezuelan president would be out of power by the close of the month rose in the time leading up to Donald Trump announced on January 3rd that the president had been taken into custody. One account, which joined the platform last month and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436K from a starting bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. The user had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Probability Spikes Before Announcement Platform data shows that participants put the odds of the president's removal at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. Yet the market's assessment had climbed to 11% by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the morning of January 3rd, pointing to a rapid movement in positions immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the signs of a bet based on confidential knowledge," said Dennis Kelleher. Several of other platform users also earned significant sums from bets on the same outcome. Legal Questions Emerges Elected officials are starting to take note. Proposed legislation presented on Monday aims to prohibit government employees from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "insider details" related to a market. Market Background Forecasting platforms have surged in popularity in recent years, with users able to bet on everything from elections to current affairs. The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. But it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market industry. A company executive for Kalshi said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."